The current situation of the over-the-counter trading market shows that there is active trading of Pi against rupee. The average daily trading volume of the Facebook group “Pi Network Pakistan Official Trade” reaches 18 million PKR, and the current average price is 5.2 PKR per Pi (with a 13% premium over international futures). A typical transaction takes 35 to 50 minutes to complete: The seller places an order for 1,000 Pi at a price of 5,200 PKR in the group. After the buyer transfers the money through JazzCash, they obtain the Pi wallet key. The intermediary charges a commission of 1.2% of the transaction amount. However, according to the police records in Lahore in 2025, the probability of fraud in such transactions reached 21%. In Q2 alone, there were 47 cases of fraud involving forged payment screenshots, amounting to 9.4 million PKR.
The restrictions on bank channels are strict. The National Bank of Pakistan (SBP) ‘s “Notice No. 79 of 2024” explicitly prohibits financial institutions from handling cryptocurrency transactions. Actual test case: A user in Karachi attempted to deposit 600,000 PKR obtained from over-the-counter transactions into HBL Bank. After triggering the anti-money laundering system alert, the account was immediately frozen, and the average time it took to unfreeze the funds was 114 days. The legal risk data is even more severe. According to Section 11D of the Anti-Terrorism Financing Act, the maximum penalty for illegal trading is 10 years in prison. By 2025, 13 over-the-counter traders had already been arrested by the FIA.
Regulatory risks and technical challenges coexist. The Pi Network mainnet has been postponed to launch in 2026, and the tokens currently in circulation are actually testnet tokens. In July 2025, the counterfeit Wallet application “Pi Pakistan Wallet” was discovered and spread on the Google Play Store, stealing 100,000 Pi coins from users, highlighting the flaws in the security architecture. Compared with mature cryptocurrencies, bitcoin price can be exchanged instantly through compliant platforms such as Binance, while Pi lacks an on-chain transaction verification mechanism. The probability of the seller going back on their word after the buyer confirms the payment is 28%.
Alternative redemption strategy assessment: Some merchants accept Pi coins to offset the value of goods. For instance, a mobile phone store in Rawalpindi requires a payment of 6,000 Pi coins (with an implied exchange rate of 5 PKR per coin) for a smartphone worth 30,000 PKR, but it represents a 17% premium over cash payment. Cross-border arbitragees transfer through the Dubai Exchange, exchanging each Pi for 0.018 US dollars and then remitting it back to Pakistan (after deducting a 5.7% handling fee). In fact, they receive approximately 4.7 PKR per PI, but the penalty risk level for violating the Foreign Exchange Administration Law is high-risk.
The core risk quantification model shows that selling 10,000 Pi at the current price of 5.2 PKR can yield 52,000 PKR. However, considering a 21% probability of fraud, a 15% probability of fund freezing, and a 12% probability of legal accountability, the actual success rate of safe liquidation is only 52%. In comparison, the OTC transaction fee for Bitcoin on the LocalBitcoins platform is only 0.6%, the confirmation time for fund arrival is 8 minutes, and the security factor is 7 times higher. The SECP warning notice emphasizes: “Any exchange of Pi coins for rupee is not protected by the Consumer Protection Ordinance, and participants must bear the risk of 100% loss of principal.”